City Population Estimate Revised Upwards

According to recent news reports, the city's population estimate has been upwardly revised by the U.S. Census Bureau to 8,213,839. This is after a successful challenge by the city government. The reasoning and methodology is reported by Newsday ("Big Apple grows: 8.2 million people, revised after census dispute," October 3, 2006):

The planning department contends thousands of New Yorkers are not counted by the Census Bureau in its annual population estimates, which are created by monitoring births, deaths and migration information. The estimates are separate from the official census population count conducted every 10 years.

The annual estimates draw migration information from tax returns, a method city planners say doesn't work for New York because it misses thousands of immigrants, students and other new residents who don't immediately file those documents.

"It falls far short," said Joe Salvo, director of the planning department's population division.

With that in mind, Salvo and his staff compile their own figure, which uses housing data such as construction permits, certificates of occupancy and utility records. In their three successful challenges since the 2000 census, they have discovered more than 205,000 additional residents.

The procedure is widely accepted by demographers and other experts, including the Census Bureau, which sent a letter to Mayor Michael Bloomberg saying the city's help was appreciated.
...
[Mayor Michael] Bloomberg said in a statement that a more precise count is crucial because it affects state and federal funding for programs including affordable housing and low-income housing tax credits. He said it paints a more accurate picture of the city, which is estimated to reach a population of 9 million by 2025 or 2030.

"The increase is also a resounding statement of confidence from the thousands of people who continue to come to New York City from other states and countries for the opportunity and diversity we offer," he said.

From the Village Voice Power Plays Blog ("Size Matters: Feds Admit NYC's Enormity," Murphy, Jarrett; October 3, 2006), with links from that blog included:

The Census Bureau updates its decennial census every year by looking at birth and death rates in a city, as well as figures on the migration of people in or out of that jurisdiction. City Planning argued that the figures on migration aren’t reliable. It suggested an alternative way of counting, using occupancy rates and a count of housing units of different sizes. The Census Bureau bowed to City Planning's wisdom (as it has for three straight years now, for a cumulative increase of 163,712 bodies.)

It's cause to celebrate when the entire city of Los Angeles would have to clone itself and merge with Oklahoma City to steal the No. 1 spot, especially when you think about the years when New York was bleeding people. But while Mayor Bloomberg is quick to tout the city's gain of 200,000 people since April 2000, getting big has its problems. One is how city services keep up with increased demand. Right now, New York has fewer cops and firefighters than it did five years ago, and while the administration says the headcount is doing more with less, the bitch from the front lines is that it doesn't add up.

Additional resources:

• Bloomberg: "New York Population Revised To Record 8.2 Million," Oct. 3, 2006