The City's Crime Rate

An op-ed by Franklin E. Zimring, a professor of law at the University of California, Berkeley, said that the crime drop in New York can't easily be fully accounted for with police tactics alone ("Little Changes, Big Results," The New York Times, April 8, 2007):

Three policing changes introduced after 1990 account for between a quarter and a half of the city’s decline — hiring more officers, increasing the aggressiveness of policing tactics and changing management systems — but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Indeed, at least half of New York City’s drop in crime reflected a national phenomenon that had nothing to do with policing. What New York City has proved is that huge changes in crime and violence can happen without fundamental changes in urban populations, economic opportunity, housing, schooling, culture or transportation. This demonstration has destroyed the conventional wisdom of social science and the major assumptions of almost all scholars.

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What the New York City experience teaches is that modest changes in urban environments can produce big changes in crime levels. Add up all of the changes in police numbers and tactics, in population, in economic opportunity and jobs, and you are talking about a city that is perhaps 10 percent different from what it was 15 years ago. But that 10 percent difference has made a huge difference in life-threatening crime. It turns out that our populations, the places they live and the institutions that touch their lives are not hard-wired to produce high and invariant levels of urban crime.

Zimring also mentions that crime rates dropped in spite of the usual conditions associated with urban crime: poverty, crowding, easy opportunity to commit crimes, etc.

Good news, perhaps, but it doesn't account for why the crime that's still there is still there. Perhaps much crime was outsourced to other states? Criminals probably have trouble living in expensive, dense urban environments too.

More importantly, how might urban institutions actually play a part in preventing crime? New York City is a place where people are outside a lot, even at night. Could it be that while being outside could produce opportunities to commit muggings, such opportunities are negated by the presence of others who might be willing to stop such actions? Also, while New York has a reputation for being jaded, a typical New York neighborhood is full of friends, families, and casual acquaintances willing and able to stand up for each other.

Perhaps urban environments aren't a model for everyone to follow, but there's something to be said for the success of one of the world's most superlatively urban environment.

Rail service from Orange to NYC?

A short article on MidHudsonNews.com ("Commission may study viability of high-speed rail between Sullivan County and New York," March 28, 2007):

Albany – Sullivan County’s two state lawmakers are backing a proposal to create a commission to study the viability of constructing a commuter rail system from Sullivan and Orange counties to New York City.

Assemblywoman Aileen Gunther of Forestburgh is a co-sponsor in her house and Senator John Bonacic is the sponsor of the bill in the Senate.

Gunther said a high-speed rail could make it easier for people who live in New York, but want to move north, to commute to work. There would be other benefits as well, she said.

“We’ve seen a lot regarding air quality, congestion on Route 17, I think it would help with tourism, and I think it will save gas in the crisis regarding the use energy and fuel,” Gunther said. “It’s important to get mass transit to all parts of New York State and I think this is a great beginning for a community 90 miles outside New York City.”

Gunther said the rail line would make sense since Sullivan and Orange counties are among the fastest growing in the state.

Rising waters, climate change, and sewage treatment

From WNYC ("Flood Control—Planning for a Wetter City," March 28, 2007, by Beth Fertig):

REPORTER: The city’s 14 sewage treatment plants also take in lots of rainwater, so they’re designed to handle big storms. But with heavier storms expected more frequently as temperatures rise, Sapienza acknowledges the obvious.

SAPIENZA: Well it’s a challenge. If we start getting a lot more days where we have to treat up to 120 million gallons a day rather than 35-40 it just makes it more of a challenge for the operators and the process to make sure everything is running up to full capacity and continuing to meet the standards.

More here.